Hillary Clinton’s advisers and allies have begun extensive discussions about who should be her running mate, seeking to compile a list of 15 to 20 potential picks for her team to start vetting by late spring.
Mrs. Clinton’s team will grapple with complicated questions like whether the United States is ready for an all-female ticket, and whether her choice for vice president would be able to handle working in a White House in which former President Bill Clinton wields significant influence on policy.
While the nomination fight is still fluid, Mrs. Clinton is confident enough of victory that she has described a vision of a running mate and objectives for the search, according to campaign advisers and more than a dozen Democrats close to the campaign or the Clintons.
She does not have a front-runner in mind, they said, but she is intrigued by several contenders and scenarios.
Among the names under discussion by Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Clinton and campaign advisers: Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, former governors from the key state of Virginia; Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who represents both a more liberal wing of the party and a swing state; former Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, a prominent African-American Democrat; and Thomas E. Perez, President Obama’s labor secretary and a Hispanic civil rights lawyer.
But Mrs. Clinton is also open to a woman, campaign advisers said. One obvious possibility is Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who is hugely popular among progressive Democrats, though she has not been helpful to Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, declining to endorse the former secretary of state.
Still, Ms. Warren has not been ruled out, according to the campaign advisers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the confidential search process.
Mrs. Clinton has offered general guidance as her team begins the search: She cares less about ideological and personal compatibility than about picking a winner, someone who can dominate the vice-presidential debate and convince Americans that Mrs. Clinton is their best choice.
She also wants a partner who is unquestionably qualified for the presidency and would help create the strongest contrast with the Republican ticket, which could be dogged by questions about Donald J. Trump’s fitness for the presidency or Senator Ted Cruz’s unbending conservatism, according to those interviewed. And she wants someone who could be an effective attack dog against either candidate.
Despite the passions stirred during the primary, Mrs. Clinton does not feel pressure to enthrall the supporters of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, since she thinks most of them would ultimately vote for her, an assertion backed up by polling.
The most unpredictable issue for the search, at least at this early stage, is the turmoil in the Republican race, which may not yield a nominee until the party’s convention in mid-July.
Mrs. Clinton is likely to make her pick soon after the Republican ticket is known, according to Democrats close to the campaign, and her political calculations in choosing a running mate may shift depending on whether the opposing nominee is Mr. Trump, Mr. Cruz or someone unexpected, and who the Republican No. 2 is.
If Gov. John Kasich of Ohio or Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, a Cuban-American, end up on the Republican ticket, Mrs. Clinton might be more inclined to pick Mr. Brown (to help her in Ohio) or Mr. Perez (to help excite Hispanic voters).
The vetting of top contenders will be led by James Hamilton, a longtime Washington lawyer who did so for the 2008 Obama campaign and other Democratic nominees, according to the Clinton advisers and other Democrats close to the campaign. The overall search process is expected to be overseen by John Podesta, the campaign chairman. Cheryl Mills, who was Mrs. Clinton’s chief of staff at the State Department and deputy White House counsel for Mr. Clinton, is also likely to play a key role, and Mr. Clinton will have a major voice.
Mr. Hamilton, reached by phone, declined to comment and referred questions to Mr. Podesta, who declined an interview request. A campaign spokesman also declined to comment, and Ms. Mills did not return an email request for comment.
Several Democratic allies say that during the search, the campaign will have to reckon with Mrs. Clinton’s high unfavorability numbers, which may create pressure to choose an inspiring figure like Julián Castro, the federal housing secretary, a rising star in the party. But Mrs. Clinton’s advisers expressed confidence that her favorability ratings would improve once a Republican nominee is chosen.
And they and other Democrats say Mrs. Clinton’s options may expand if Mr. Trump is nominated, given his unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate.
“She will have a lot more flexibility in picking a running mate if the Republican nominee is Donald Trump rather than Ted Cruz, who appears a much closer contest for her,” said former Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
Most leading presidential campaigns start organizing their vice-presidential searches at this point in the race, when they have a sizable lead in delegates needed for the nomination. The candidates themselves remain sharply focused on the remaining contests: Mr. Sanders insists he could still overtake Mrs. Clinton, despite her big lead. And she is superstitious about getting too far ahead of herself, as she sometimes did in her failed 2008 race.
But given the methodical nature of Mrs. Clinton’s advisers, as well as the political passions of the Clintons themselves, the vice presidency is an increasing preoccupation at campaign headquarters and at the Clintons’ home in Chappaqua, N.Y.
“They’re fielding ideas for a running mate, and lot of people are suggesting names,” said former Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, a close ally of the Clinton campaign. “I’ve made some recommendations, but all I’ll say is that governing ability and winning the election are the fits that they’re looking for most.”
Former Gov. Jim Hodges of South Carolina, a key ally of the Clintons, said he favored adding a woman to the ticket. “It would be formidable and create huge buzz with female voters,” he said, suggesting Ms. Warren or Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.
Advisers to Mrs. Clinton said she was in the unique position of having firsthand expertise at the vetting and selection process: She was deeply involved in Mr. Clinton’s search in 1992 that resulted in the selection of Al Gore, then a senator from Tennessee, with whom she later clashed at times. She supported Mr. Clinton putting another young Southern moderate on the ticket, which was seen as a bold choice at the time — and which her advisers point to as evidence that she may be unconventional if she is nominated.
Her experience with Mr. Gore colors her perspective in two ways, according to Democrats who have spoken to her about the vice presidency.
She knows that if she chooses a younger and ambitious vice president, she will have someone by her side who may be making calculations with an eye toward running for the presidency in 2024. The past two vice presidents, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Dick Cheney, were widely seen as devoted to their jobs; they appreciated and sought power, but given their ages, they were not determined to seek their bosses’ job in the future. Mrs. Clinton, 68, likes that fact, Democrats say, and has to decide if she wants a rising star or a seasoned hand who is not interested in the presidency, like Bill Nelson, 73, a senator from another key state, Florida.
Mrs. Clinton is also well aware of the inherent tensions between a vice president and a powerful first lady (or first gentleman). She and Mr. Gore became rivals in the White House as she led the health care overhaul effort and he pursued his “reinventing government” initiative, and both wanted their portfolios to be Mr. Clinton’s top priority. Advisers said that in the current search, Mrs. Clinton wants a running mate who would accept and appreciate that Mr. Clinton, as a former president, would offer expertise and guidance — and perhaps play a formal role on specific issues — if she were president.
“Hillary understands how the vice presidency can work well, and not work well, far better than anyone running or anyone on her staff,” said Richard W. Riley, a friend of the Clintons who was the education secretary under Mr. Clinton and advises the campaign on education issues. “And she and Bill Clinton know he’d have to be very careful about how he relates to the vice president. Hillary is the decision maker now.”
Other Democrats argue that the running mate should be African-American or Hispanic because those two demographic groups have been such strong supporters of Mrs. Clinton — and their votes, as well as those from women, are the key blocs she would need in a general election. In addition to Mr. Patrick and Mr. Perez, Democrats close to the campaign said her advisers were also discussing Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who is black, and Mr. Castro, who is Hispanic. (Mr. Kaine is also fluent in Spanish.)
For all the vetting and strategizing, however, running-mate selections do not always work out as well as intended, especially with so many unconventional variables: the first female nominee, the Republican upheaval and the angry, anxious political crosscurrents in the electorate.
“It’s so easy to make a mistake in this,” said Robert Shrum, a Democratic strategist on several past campaigns, including John Kerry’s bid in 2004, when John Edwards and Richard A. Gephardt were finalists for vice president.
“Choosing Edwards was a mistake because Dick could have helped us in Ohio in a way that Edwards could not, and Dick would have done better in the vice-presidential debate,” Mr. Shrum said, referring to Mr. Kerry’s narrow loss in that state. “But a lot of us wanted Edwards at the time. Kerry was doubtful about him, but was persuaded,” he added. “The most important thing for Hillary, in the end, is to follow her own instincts on this one.”
SOURCE:THE NEW YORK TIMES
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